De premier van Italië Matteo Renzi heeft verloren. Beleggers zouden daarvan flink van het padje kunnen raken. Beleggingsexperts van diverse asset managers doen uit de doeken hoe zij het zien.
Brussel haalt wel opgelucht adem dat Alexander van der Bellen van de Groene Partij de eerstvolgende president van Oostenrijk wordt. Hij versloeg Norbert Hofer van de uiterst rechtse Freiheitliche Partei Östereichs (FPÖ), die zich tegen de Europese Unie opstelde. In Italië heeft het anders uitgepakt.
Ogenschijnlijk dus punten voor de Europese Unie (EU) als het om Oostenrijk gaat, maar wat betreft Italië ligt dat anders. Renzi had al eerder verklaarde te zullen aftreden bij een nederlaag. En die nederlaag is toch wel zwaar gebleken. Hij voegt de daad bij het woord, na het bekend worden van de uitslag van het referendum over de aanpassing van de grondwet, die neer zou komen op een verkleining van de senaat. Zo’n 41% van de Italianen stemde zondag 4 december voor en 59% tegen.
De euro kreeg meteen na de eerste peilingen in de avonduren klappen ten opzichte van de Amerikaanse dollar. Nadat Renzi had gezegd zich te houden aan zijn belofte liep de munt nog meer averij op. Maandagochtend daalde de waarde in vergelijking met die van de dollar naar het laagste punt sinds maart 2015.
Onzekerheid is dus het woord dat een tijd lang rond kan blijven zoemen. Daar houden beleggers in de regel niet zo van. Vandaar hieronder een bundeling van eerste reacties en commentaren van specialisten uit de beleggerswereld.
Philip Dicken (Head of European Equities) en Adrian Hilton (European fixed income Portfolio Manager) bij Columbia Threadneedle Investments:
“The Italian No vote in their referendum is part of a much bigger jigsaw. The proposed constitutional changes were part of a complicated question which sought to put more power in the hands of the government by reducing the power of the Senate. Renzi made a mistake in threatening to resign in the event of a No, making the referendum a vote on him as much as about constitutional change.”
“In the short term, we will probably see president Matterella put in place a technocratic government to rule until the next general election in 2018. Italy, the EU and the ECB may also need to help the Italian banking sector with their ongoing recapitalisation efforts.”
“However, this could all be a blessing in disguise. Had the vote gone through, there would have been more chance of an all-powerful anti-EU Five Star win at the next election. As it is, the checks and balances remain in Italy and the electoral process (specifically the Italicum law) is likely to be changed to favour a leading coalition, rather than a leading party.”
“Italian bonds have opened in a relatively calm manner following the referendum result, initially widening by around 10 basis points to German bunds and revisiting the spread levels we saw around the beginning of last week before retracing slightly. A victory for ‘No’ was already substantially priced into market prices.”
Paul Hatfield (Global Chief Investment Officer bij Alcentra, een boutique van BNY Mellon):
“Although the No result wasn’t too much of a surprise, perhaps the extent of the majority was. The market will be watching Monte dei Paschi closely. Their 5 billion dollar private recap may be in jeopardy. Given they are the third largest lender in Italy, this could have major repercussions. It could go several different ways if the recap doesn’t get through, few of which would be viewed positively for banks in the eurozone. As with all the recent political shocks we’ve had recently, this will elevate volatility.”
“Interestingly, the ECB is limited to own a 33% of a country’s debt. It currently owns roughly 26% of Italy’s and may need to look at that this week. The result is also likely to heighten volatility for the eurozone’s weaker members, especially Greece and to a lesser extent, Spain and Portugal. With another election now added to the cocktail of political risks in Europe as Italy has to go to the polls again, this won’t help stability. Like Brexit, the currency seems to be bearing the brunt of the market’s concerns with the euro down sharply.”
“That said, markets seem relatively calm at the open with a surprising number of people not at their desks early, unlike after The Brexit and Trump results. Perhaps we are all becoming more immune to these ‘shocks’.”
Hans van Zwol (Senior Portfolio Manager Global Fixed Income bij NN Investment Partners):
“The Italian referendum concluded with a clear ‘no’ against the proposed constitutional reforms. Prime Minister Renzi has said to submit his resignation to the Italian president. For the political follow-up there are several scenario’s possible and it remains unclear how exactly this will evolve.”
“So far, the market’s reaction is moderate. The interest differential between 10 year Italian government bonds and their German peers this morning initially widened by 0,14%, but is now almost back to last week’s level. There is clearly no panic or strong flight to the safest assets. Due to worries about some weak Italian banks, spreads of financials are wider, but also here we do not see a very strong move.”
“Longer term, there are some reasons to worry about financial markets. New elections could potentially bring the euro-sceptic Five Star Movement into power and political muddle through scenario’s, in case of a caretaker government or other short-term solutions, will most likely mean that the Italian economy will continue to perform poorly due to the lack of reforms.”
“Although Italy’s risk premia over the best rated euro government bonds look attractive and the ECB’s government bond buying programme offers cushion, we think that it is worth treating Italian government bonds carefully until we have more clarity on upcoming political developments.”
Monica Defend (Head of Global Asset Allocation Research) en Cosimo Marasciulo (Head of European Government Bonds) bij Pioneer Investments:
“It’s not the rejection of the constitutional reform per se which may have an impact, but the instability which could follow and the slowdown in the structural reform process. Renzi’s resignation could halt the efforts taken over recent years to stimulate the Italian economy. We will likely see also some pressure on the Italian banking sector. If a Government is rapidly formed, those risks could be well contained and we could see the legislation process continuing with some sort of coalition Government.”
“Uncertainty instead would ramp up if early elections are called and anti-establishment and euro-skeptical parties triumph. We believe that this scenario, which could potentially bring back the euro break-up debate, is unlikely, as parties have strong incentives to form a coalition and complete the electoral law before an election. Also the Constitution court is likely to demand changes to make the system more proportional.”
“Next year will bring elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands, at a time when the aftermath of Brexit is still unfolding, as well as the changing equilibria associated with Trump’s election. These events come at a time when Central Banks are passing the relay baton back to Governments in an effort to complement monetary policy stimulus with more expansionary fiscal policies and structural reforms.”
“Populism and rising social discontent remain the key risks, but we believe that expecting a materialization of these risks on the back of the ‘no’ victory is overstated. The outcome of future political elections may be a more relevant factor, likely to shape the fiscal policy stance, and ultimately having an influence on Central Banks’ monetary policy.”
“After experiencing the ‘unexpected’ with Brexit and Trump’s victory, investors may have become too keen to price in political risks. We thought that the market was overshooting ahead of the referendum. A ‘no’ victory was partially discounted in Italian assets, and we believe there is value in Italian government bonds. We expect volatility in the short term and the ECB to be ready to frontload purchases of BTPs (long-term Italian government bonds).”
“What is not priced in is prolonged political instability: the inability to form a care taker government, an early election with the current electoral law, the risk of 5 Star winning it and then pushing for a referendum to leave the euro. But we consider this scenario unlikely, even in the case of an early election, 5 Star should not win the majority in both houses as they will likely win only a third of the seats in the Senate (which is still elected under a standard proportional system).”
